Thursday, 2 August 2012

the nightmare of housing prices

‎I simply pose the question, why rising house prices would be good for an advanced society?
Below are a few posts I have done either in Facebook, or as comments in forums.

1. Housing is a right, not a privilege.
2. Residential property should never have become a speculative asset.
3. Personal wealth should not be acquired by residential property speculation and in particular, 'house flippers' who used the PPOR as a tax shelter from property profits.
4. All wages should grow across an advanced society at the same rate for all levels.
5. Public housing is an investment in our nation, not a cost, as it is an investment into people.
6. Rent increases should not be more than CPI, by law.
7. Doom and gloom is rising house prices, not falling house prices.
8. Having a social conscience, means caring about the cost of housing for the following generations.
9. House prices do not always go up. There is no housing shortage in Australia and some ABS stats are BS.
10. We need to guide the youth to go from exclusion to inclusion and the aged from success to significance.

Immigration and population growth does not correlate to house price growth.
Associate Professor Steve Keen has worked on this. It is a myth.

Easy credit and demographics blew the bubble up and by an large demographics and tighter credit will deflate the bubble.

Our natural growth may drop to zero or even negative around 2035, due to our death rates doubling as the boomers leave the home planet. I think it is very likely that our population will peak around 2040 at approx 29 million and then may even start to decline. So, for the kids under 10, good news, houses will be very affordable again in their lifetime. We have spent the last 20 years with 'rear view mirror' policy making. Trying to fix the problems of the past. Once a population peaks and then starts to decline, policy is formed by looking out the 'front window'. That day is coming and while people can rent at fraction the cost of a mortgage for the same property, sit tight, rent, save, invest and wait some more....
These people may end up having a 100% deposit!

Unaffordability has been talked about for some time.
What is lacking is political balls to tackle the problems.$File/Housing%20Affordability.pdf
"House prices in Australia have risen faster than average household incomes since 1970. In 2007-2008, 49.3% of low income households with a mortgage in NSW were found to be in mortgage stress (nationally 46.6%). Sydney is considered to have the most heated market for private housing amongst
Australian capital cities. From September 2008 to September 2010, median prices for non-strata dwellings in Sydney increased by 22.8% and by 14.9% across NSW.
According to Shelter NSW, in September 2010, 1% of home purchase stock was found to be affordable for very low income households, 6% for low income households, and 25% for moderate income households.
While the overall trend in house prices in NSW is upward, there is some variation amongst local housing markets in terms of the extent of the increase.
For key workers (notably, police, teachers, nurses, fire fighters and ambulance officers) looking to buy a house, 84% of Sydney LGA's in 2010 were unaffordable. In regional NSW, 75% of LGAs were affordable, with house prices less than 5 times the salaries of key workers."

Why prices will drop and according to my demographic studies,  until around 2018. now... sad stuff indeed.
Ignore the shortage myth as the Census 2011 data, and the missing 300,000 people blew that myth apart.

Average people are priced out of average homes.

Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show 3 in every 10 households suffer mortgage stress."

Read this three times!!!!

1. 6% of mortgages are now underwater. That is the loan is more than the house is worth. Many of these people in negative equity, will sit tight, continue to pay the mortgage (if they keep a job) and 'hope' that prices rise in the future - Denial.

2. Buying a 'home' is an emotional decision, not a financial one and thus the bubble blew up. If you wanted to make money from RE, you would rent and then buy multiple IP's achieving the biggest gain over time.

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