Sunday, 26 August 2012

Not sure what planet Dick Smith and Ian Lowe are on?

Perhaps if we were actually dealing with the real data and Professor Lowe actually could quote the correct numbers?

He states...
"Adding together the birth rate and migration, the Australian population is now growing by about 400,000 a year or another million every two and a half years...
Each year about 100,000 Australians die and about 250,000 babies are born, so the population would grow by about 150,000 a year or about 400 a day if there were no migration."

We grew by 302,000 actually and 60% on a temporary Visa.
149,700 net natural growth or 296,700 births minus 147,000 deaths. So he is out only by approx 50% in his numbers. Note the deaths were 2.5% higher than the previous year as were births.
Our NOM was 184,000.

What it leads to his the same sort of misguided emotion that surrounds climate change. The difference, demography is quite exact. Look at this bs, Brisbane to grow to 4.4 million from the 2.15 million now by 2031, when it is actually grew by 34,800 last year. Far short of the 118,1421 required yearly to add the 2.25 million over the 19 years.

1. Some city areas in Brisbane are in population decline, as are the other capitals.

2. "The SD of Brisbane experienced the largest growth of all SDs in Queensland, with an increase of 34,800 people (1.7%) in the year to June 2011. Brisbane SD accounted for 45% of Queensland's population at June 2011." Mmmm... 20 years by 34,800 is only 696,000 extra people and in that time frames Qld death rates double.

3. I suppose these suburbs in Brisbane are bucking the Dick Smith Trend. "DECLINING POPULATIONS- In the 12 months to June 2011, just over 10% of the 74 LGAs in Queensland had a small decline in population or remained stable. The two SLAs with the largest declines were Keperra (down 40 people) and Bald Hills (down 30), both located in the Brisbane (C) LGA."

Really as far as the growth in the population in Qld, both natural growth and the NOM could fall and we would still be growing due to the 1/3 demographic momentum, more people living longer.

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