http://www.ted.com/talks/david_christian_big_history.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BltRufe5kkI&feature=youtu.be
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2125031,00.html#ixzz27eG4Sd6B
the personal ramblings of Pauk...
Friday, 28 September 2012
Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Pondering...
Mmm.... just had a thought.
If retired people want reverse mortgages (11% and compounding interest) then why not just sell 25% of their home to an investor and agree to pay some rent. If someone can not sell their home, why not sell 50% of it.
It would suit society if the govt were to buy this equity, so when the pensioner couple die, the house could be converted to public housing as an option.
Flexible financial housing solutions will assist in the deflation.
Later edit: domacom.com.au provides Fractional Property Investing.
What are the exit plans like for the majority holder? Who decides the sell price? Lots of question, however a novel approach
If retired people want reverse mortgages (11% and compounding interest) then why not just sell 25% of their home to an investor and agree to pay some rent. If someone can not sell their home, why not sell 50% of it.
It would suit society if the govt were to buy this equity, so when the pensioner couple die, the house could be converted to public housing as an option.
Flexible financial housing solutions will assist in the deflation.
Later edit: domacom.com.au provides Fractional Property Investing.
What are the exit plans like for the majority holder? Who decides the sell price? Lots of question, however a novel approach
Sunday, 26 August 2012
Unwinding of our Terms of Trade and GDP Growth
Treasury data released in July shows that roughly half of the growth in average income experienced in the 2000s was due to the rise in out terms of trade, and the economy and income growth would therefore experience severe challenges in future when the terms of trade unwind.http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Speeches/2012/Productivity-and-Structural-Change
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/asia/australia_productivity_imperative
Not sure what planet Dick Smith and Ian Lowe are on?
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/australia27s-population-debate/4197352
Perhaps if we were actually dealing with the real data and Professor Lowe actually could quote the correct numbers?
He states...
"Adding together the birth rate and migration, the Australian population is now growing by about 400,000 a year or another million every two and a half years...
Each year about 100,000 Australians die and about 250,000 babies are born, so the population would grow by about 150,000 a year or about 400 a day if there were no migration."
We grew by 302,000 actually and 60% on a temporary Visa.
149,700 net natural growth or 296,700 births minus 147,000 deaths. So he is out only by approx 50% in his numbers. Note the deaths were 2.5% higher than the previous year as were births.
Our NOM was 184,000.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3101.0Dec%202011?OpenDocument
What it leads to his the same sort of misguided emotion that surrounds climate change. The difference, demography is quite exact. Look at this bs, Brisbane to grow to 4.4 million from the 2.15 million now by 2031, when it is actually grew by 34,800 last year. Far short of the 118,1421 required yearly to add the 2.25 million over the 19 years.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/population-sweet-spot-how-big-should-brisbane-grow-20120822-24mgm.html
Facts...
1. Some city areas in Brisbane are in population decline, as are the other capitals.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features62010-11?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2010-11&num=&view=
2. "The SD of Brisbane experienced the largest growth of all SDs in Queensland, with an increase of 34,800 people (1.7%) in the year to June 2011. Brisbane SD accounted for 45% of Queensland's population at June 2011." Mmmm... 20 years by 34,800 is only 696,000 extra people and in that time frames Qld death rates double.
3. I suppose these suburbs in Brisbane are bucking the Dick Smith Trend. "DECLINING POPULATIONS- In the 12 months to June 2011, just over 10% of the 74 LGAs in Queensland had a small decline in population or remained stable. The two SLAs with the largest declines were Keperra (down 40 people) and Bald Hills (down 30), both located in the Brisbane (C) LGA."
Really as far as the growth in the population in Qld, both natural growth and the NOM could fall and we would still be growing due to the 1/3 demographic momentum, more people living longer.
Perhaps if we were actually dealing with the real data and Professor Lowe actually could quote the correct numbers?
He states...
"Adding together the birth rate and migration, the Australian population is now growing by about 400,000 a year or another million every two and a half years...
Each year about 100,000 Australians die and about 250,000 babies are born, so the population would grow by about 150,000 a year or about 400 a day if there were no migration."
We grew by 302,000 actually and 60% on a temporary Visa.
149,700 net natural growth or 296,700 births minus 147,000 deaths. So he is out only by approx 50% in his numbers. Note the deaths were 2.5% higher than the previous year as were births.
Our NOM was 184,000.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3101.0Dec%202011?OpenDocument
What it leads to his the same sort of misguided emotion that surrounds climate change. The difference, demography is quite exact. Look at this bs, Brisbane to grow to 4.4 million from the 2.15 million now by 2031, when it is actually grew by 34,800 last year. Far short of the 118,1421 required yearly to add the 2.25 million over the 19 years.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/population-sweet-spot-how-big-should-brisbane-grow-20120822-24mgm.html
Facts...
1. Some city areas in Brisbane are in population decline, as are the other capitals.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features62010-11?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2010-11&num=&view=
2. "The SD of Brisbane experienced the largest growth of all SDs in Queensland, with an increase of 34,800 people (1.7%) in the year to June 2011. Brisbane SD accounted for 45% of Queensland's population at June 2011." Mmmm... 20 years by 34,800 is only 696,000 extra people and in that time frames Qld death rates double.
3. I suppose these suburbs in Brisbane are bucking the Dick Smith Trend. "DECLINING POPULATIONS- In the 12 months to June 2011, just over 10% of the 74 LGAs in Queensland had a small decline in population or remained stable. The two SLAs with the largest declines were Keperra (down 40 people) and Bald Hills (down 30), both located in the Brisbane (C) LGA."
Really as far as the growth in the population in Qld, both natural growth and the NOM could fall and we would still be growing due to the 1/3 demographic momentum, more people living longer.
Ageing Costs and Land Tax
Increasing taxes and reducing spending and entitlements seems to be a common element of most aging nation.The first new tax should be an expansion of the land tax with reverse mortgages provided by Centrelink for pensioners.
After all, surely any new taxes should should increase for the aged as well?
It should not be about raising taxes for the workers or investors?
After all, surely any new taxes should should increase for the aged as well?
It should not be about raising taxes for the workers or investors?
Singapore Sees Taxes Rising on Social Spending
as Nation Ages
By Shamim Adam on August 26, 2012
Singapore will need to raise taxes in the next two decades as the government boosts social spending to support an aging population, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said as he proposed measures to boost the country’s birth rate.
The prime minister pledged to ensure sufficient affordable housing for citizens, invest in pre-school education and add nursing homes for the elderly. He urged Singaporeans to build a more compassionate society, reject anti-foreigner sentiment and have more babies, saying the nation needs to re-invent itself to progress as the economy faces slower growth after years of rapid expansion....
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-26/singapore-sees-taxes-rising-on-social-spending-as-nation-age
Friday, 24 August 2012
The passing of the economies
Purple Economy - 1960 to 1970
Gold Economy - 1970 to 2010
Grey Economy - 2011 - 2030
Black Economy - 2031 to 2050
Green Economy - 2051 to 2200
Purple - The boomers enter teenage years and the 60's was, what the 60's was.
Gold - The boomers work and start to amass wealth. The property boom get a slow start.
Grey - The boomers retire and the unprecendented aging off the nation begins. The property bust.
Black - Boomers start to leave the home planet. Oz death rates double. Another property decline.
Green - Possible global population peaks and then its decline. Property grows in line with the CPI.
Gold Economy - 1970 to 2010
Grey Economy - 2011 - 2030
Black Economy - 2031 to 2050
Green Economy - 2051 to 2200
Purple - The boomers enter teenage years and the 60's was, what the 60's was.
Gold - The boomers work and start to amass wealth. The property boom get a slow start.
Grey - The boomers retire and the unprecendented aging off the nation begins. The property bust.
Black - Boomers start to leave the home planet. Oz death rates double. Another property decline.
Green - Possible global population peaks and then its decline. Property grows in line with the CPI.
The Grey Economy
How to cope with grey Australia
Oliver Marc Hartwich & Jessica Brown
Published 5:30 PM, 24 Aug 2012
Australia's population debate misses global ageing reality.
In Australia, we talk about population growth as if it is something to be feared. But across much of the developed world, population ageing is a far more worrying trend.
Populations are getting older and smaller across Europe and northeast Asia.
Japan is now the oldest society in the world. Its population is projected to shrink by a quarter by 2050....
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ageing-population-australia-baby-boomers-health-ca-pd20120822-XE7B8?opendocument&src=rss
Oliver Marc Hartwich & Jessica Brown
Published 5:30 PM, 24 Aug 2012
Australia's population debate misses global ageing reality.
In Australia, we talk about population growth as if it is something to be feared. But across much of the developed world, population ageing is a far more worrying trend.
Populations are getting older and smaller across Europe and northeast Asia.
Japan is now the oldest society in the world. Its population is projected to shrink by a quarter by 2050....
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ageing-population-australia-baby-boomers-health-ca-pd20120822-XE7B8?opendocument&src=rss
1. As Oz ages, like many others, it will likely become more NIMBY, conservative and resist immigration.
2. Over the next 25 years our deaths rates double and our natural growth may drop to zero or even negative and there is no chance immigration will double or treble to compensate.
3. 40% of voters are above the age of 50 and this percentage grows significantly in the future.
4. Note our demographic momentum, more people living longer, is 1/3 of our growth in real population numbers. So natural growth, NOM and momentum.
2. Over the next 25 years our deaths rates double and our natural growth may drop to zero or even negative and there is no chance immigration will double or treble to compensate.
3. 40% of voters are above the age of 50 and this percentage grows significantly in the future.
4. Note our demographic momentum, more people living longer, is 1/3 of our growth in real population numbers. So natural growth, NOM and momentum.
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