Quite old graphs, but interesting none the less.
the personal ramblings of Pauk...
Monday, 16 November 2015
Friday, 17 April 2015
IGR PC
Perhaps the IGR5 should have done a projection that would take into account our likely population peak, stabilise or possible decline.
Just saying.... with fewer babies and more deaths last year, IMO our population will peak at around 32 million in 2045 and perhaps be 31 million by 2100.
Things look pretty good to me....
Link to larger image
Thursday, 7 November 2013
Sunday, 3 November 2013
The looming death bust...
The death bust (80 years after the baby boom) must be factored into any demographic arguments and our natural growth is downhill from here on in.
Tuesday, 29 October 2013
Bubble up, bubble down
Bubble up = ageing + easy available credit + affordability + consistent high population growth (1970 to 2017)
Bubble down = ageing + unaffordability + rapid population growth decline (2017 to 2025)
Bubble down = ageing + unaffordability + rapid population growth decline (2017 to 2025)
Monday, 1 July 2013
Population Ageing
Number of persons aged 60 years or over
There are approximately 810 million persons aged 60 years or over in the world in 2012 and this number is projected to grow to more than 2 billion by 2050. At that point, older persons will outnumber the population of children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history. Asia has more than half (55 per cent) of the world’s older persons, followed by Europe, which accounts for 21 per cent of the total.
There are approximately 810 million persons aged 60 years or over in the world in 2012 and this number is projected to grow to more than 2 billion by 2050. At that point, older persons will outnumber the population of children (0-14 years) for the first time in human history. Asia has more than half (55 per cent) of the world’s older persons, followed by Europe, which accounts for 21 per cent of the total.
Proportion of the total population aged 60 years or over
One out of every nine persons in the world is aged 60 years or over. By 2050, one out of every five persons is projected to be in that age group. The proportion of the total population that is 60 years or older is much higher in the more developed regions than in the less developed regions: one in five persons in Europe; one in nine persons in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean; and one in 16 persons in Africa. Although ageing is evolving fast in the more developed regions, the less developed regions will experience faster ageing over a much shorter period of time.
One out of every nine persons in the world is aged 60 years or over. By 2050, one out of every five persons is projected to be in that age group. The proportion of the total population that is 60 years or older is much higher in the more developed regions than in the less developed regions: one in five persons in Europe; one in nine persons in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean; and one in 16 persons in Africa. Although ageing is evolving fast in the more developed regions, the less developed regions will experience faster ageing over a much shorter period of time.
Share of persons aged 80 years or over
The older population is itself ageing. Currently, the oldest old population (aged 80 years or over) accounts for 14 per cent of the population aged 60 years or over. The oldest old is the fastest growing age segment of the older population. By 2050, 20 per cent of the older population will be aged 80 years or over. The number of centenarians (aged 100 years or over) is growing even faster, and is projected to increase tenfold, from approximately 343,000 in 2012 to 3.2 million by 2050.
The older population is itself ageing. Currently, the oldest old population (aged 80 years or over) accounts for 14 per cent of the population aged 60 years or over. The oldest old is the fastest growing age segment of the older population. By 2050, 20 per cent of the older population will be aged 80 years or over. The number of centenarians (aged 100 years or over) is growing even faster, and is projected to increase tenfold, from approximately 343,000 in 2012 to 3.2 million by 2050.
Sex ratio of older persons
The majority of older persons are women and the sex ratio (number of men per 100 women) is lower the older the age group. In 2012, at the world level, there are 84 men per 100 women among older persons, and only 61 men for every 100 women among the oldest old. The ratio of men to women at older ages is lower in the more developed regions (89 men per 100 women) than in the less developed regions (men per 100 women) because women outlive men by a wider margin in the more developed regions.
The majority of older persons are women and the sex ratio (number of men per 100 women) is lower the older the age group. In 2012, at the world level, there are 84 men per 100 women among older persons, and only 61 men for every 100 women among the oldest old. The ratio of men to women at older ages is lower in the more developed regions (89 men per 100 women) than in the less developed regions (men per 100 women) because women outlive men by a wider margin in the more developed regions.
Life expectancy at age 60
The world has experienced large improvements in longevity, while the gap across development regions has narrowed. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at birth was 66 years in the more developed regions compared with only 42 years in the less developed regions. By 2010-2015, it will reach 78 years and 67 years, respectively. On average, of those surviving to age 60 in 2010-2015, men can expect to live an additional 18 years and women an additional 22 years. Life expectancy at age 60 varies significantly across development regions. Men reaching age 60 can expect to live only 18 more years in the less developed regions compared to 21 more years in the more developed regions. Women reaching age 60 can expect to live an additional 20 years in the less developed regions compared with an additional 25 years in the more developed regions.
The world has experienced large improvements in longevity, while the gap across development regions has narrowed. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at birth was 66 years in the more developed regions compared with only 42 years in the less developed regions. By 2010-2015, it will reach 78 years and 67 years, respectively. On average, of those surviving to age 60 in 2010-2015, men can expect to live an additional 18 years and women an additional 22 years. Life expectancy at age 60 varies significantly across development regions. Men reaching age 60 can expect to live only 18 more years in the less developed regions compared to 21 more years in the more developed regions. Women reaching age 60 can expect to live an additional 20 years in the less developed regions compared with an additional 25 years in the more developed regions.
Proportion of older persons who are currently married
Older men are more likely to be married than older women. At the world level, 81 per cent of older men are currently married, compared to only 50 per cent of older women. Sex differences in the proportion married are largest in least developed countries (85 per cent for men compared to 38 per cent for women), where the age difference between spouses is higher and widowers are more likely to remarry. Most older unmarried persons are widowed. Women are more likely to outlive their spouses because they live longer and are, on average, younger than their husbands.
Older men are more likely to be married than older women. At the world level, 81 per cent of older men are currently married, compared to only 50 per cent of older women. Sex differences in the proportion married are largest in least developed countries (85 per cent for men compared to 38 per cent for women), where the age difference between spouses is higher and widowers are more likely to remarry. Most older unmarried persons are widowed. Women are more likely to outlive their spouses because they live longer and are, on average, younger than their husbands.
Proportion of older persons who are living independently
Living independently, that is, either living alone or only with one's spouse, is rare among older persons in developing countries, but is the dominant living arrangement in developed countries. An estimated 40 per cent of the world’s older persons live independently, with no discernible difference by sex. The gap in the proportion living independently between the more developed regions and the rest of the world is remarkable. Almost three quarters of all older persons in the more developed regions either live alone or only with their spouse compared with only a quarter in the less developed regions, and just over 10 per cent in the least developed countries. The predominance of independent living among older persons is likely to increase as the world’s population continues to age.
Living independently, that is, either living alone or only with one's spouse, is rare among older persons in developing countries, but is the dominant living arrangement in developed countries. An estimated 40 per cent of the world’s older persons live independently, with no discernible difference by sex. The gap in the proportion living independently between the more developed regions and the rest of the world is remarkable. Almost three quarters of all older persons in the more developed regions either live alone or only with their spouse compared with only a quarter in the less developed regions, and just over 10 per cent in the least developed countries. The predominance of independent living among older persons is likely to increase as the world’s population continues to age.
Old-age support ratio
The old-age support ratio, that is, the number of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, is an indicator of demographic ageing and of the degree of dependency of older persons on potential workers. Since 1950, the world old-age support ratio has been continuously declining, which means that there are less “workers” to support every person aged 65 years or over. The ratio fell from 12 to 8 working-age persons for each older person between 1950 and 2012, and is projected to further decrease to 4 by 2050. In 2012, the old-age support ratio was much higher in the less developed regions (11 working-age persons per older person) than in the more developed regions (4 working-age persons per older person). The old-age support ratio has important implications for the solvency of social security systems (pensions and public health), as well as for the demand of private transfers from the working-age population to older family members.
The old-age support ratio, that is, the number of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, is an indicator of demographic ageing and of the degree of dependency of older persons on potential workers. Since 1950, the world old-age support ratio has been continuously declining, which means that there are less “workers” to support every person aged 65 years or over. The ratio fell from 12 to 8 working-age persons for each older person between 1950 and 2012, and is projected to further decrease to 4 by 2050. In 2012, the old-age support ratio was much higher in the less developed regions (11 working-age persons per older person) than in the more developed regions (4 working-age persons per older person). The old-age support ratio has important implications for the solvency of social security systems (pensions and public health), as well as for the demand of private transfers from the working-age population to older family members.
Proportion of the older population in the labour force
Labour force participation among older persons varies by development region and gender. In 2012, the proportion of older persons who are economically active is much higher in the less developed regions (50 per cent among men and 22 per cent among women) than in the more developed regions (26 per cent among men and 15 per cent among women). Older persons in the less developed regions work until more advanced ages owing mainly to the limited coverage of social security schemes, as well as the relatively low value of the pensions received by those who are covered.
Labour force participation among older persons varies by development region and gender. In 2012, the proportion of older persons who are economically active is much higher in the less developed regions (50 per cent among men and 22 per cent among women) than in the more developed regions (26 per cent among men and 15 per cent among women). Older persons in the less developed regions work until more advanced ages owing mainly to the limited coverage of social security schemes, as well as the relatively low value of the pensions received by those who are covered.
Statutory retirement age
The statutory retirement age, which is defined as the minimum age at which people can qualify for full pension benefits, tends to be higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Also, in all countries of the world, the retirement age for women is the same as or lower than that for men—generally by five years. In most developed countries, men and women become eligible for full pension benefits at age 65 years or over, while in developing
countries, they often become eligible between 55 and 60 years. The lower statutory retirement ages common in developing countries is a reflection of their more incipient social security systems, their lower life expectancies and their higher old-age support ratios
The statutory retirement age, which is defined as the minimum age at which people can qualify for full pension benefits, tends to be higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Also, in all countries of the world, the retirement age for women is the same as or lower than that for men—generally by five years. In most developed countries, men and women become eligible for full pension benefits at age 65 years or over, while in developing
countries, they often become eligible between 55 and 60 years. The lower statutory retirement ages common in developing countries is a reflection of their more incipient social security systems, their lower life expectancies and their higher old-age support ratios
Sunday, 21 April 2013
To avoid the looming generational war...
Simply!
We also need to tax the asset rich/cash poor (over 65′s) more.
We also need to tax the asset rich/cash poor (over 65′s) more.
1. GST to 20% and raise welfare and the tax free threshold accordingly to compensate.
2. Land tax to replace stamps and create reverse mortgages from Centrelink for those that are asset rich/cash for to pay.
3. CGT on all property sold under 10 years. Exemptions for real reasons to move – health, babies and work. No CGT after 10 years, ZERO!
4. Death tax on the value over $1million at 25%. (Rural and ongoing businesses exempt.)
5. Asset test the PPOR (value over $750k) for pension eligibility and also provide reverse mortgages exclusively from the govt, to those asset rich/cash poor. It is not fair that pensioners can live in a $5 million dollar home, have $1m in cash and still get a part pension!
Monday, 15 April 2013
Robert Oakeshott MP shows his complete lack of a social conscience
Recently in a twitter conversation, Rob cheered that house prices were rising again. When I asked him why that would be a good thing for an advanced society, he responded...
"@OakeyMP
"@OakeyMP
“Because people own houses under private title, and people’s personal wealth matters. can I put it any more simply for you?”
Friday, 12 April 2013
Julia thinks we can go to 40 million by 2050, she is mad as batpoo!
Mad as batpoo!
As our natural growth drops to perhaps to zero or even negative over the next 2.5 decades as our deaths double (boomers departing the home planet), what she is really saying is that we must accept a double or even a treble increase in immigration. Not going to happen! Will anyone accept 450,000 or 600,000 net immigrants per year? As I said, mad as batpoo!
End of September 2012 – 22 785, 000
ABS says now April 12, 2013 – 22, 988,000
So what 213,000 additions in 6 months? Just shows how ‘out’ the abs really is, like the 300,000 extra that they had that our census showed we did not.
Back of envelope – to get to 40 million from our 23 million, we will need to add 17 million over 28 years, or approx 607, 142 per year. Now lets say we have a natural growth (2013 to 2035) as 2.5 million (2013 at 150k, 2104 at 145k, 2035 at 50k etc to 2050) that means we would need to add 14.5 million net immigrants or approx 518K per year. Yep, not going to happen! What politics is this actually about? It certainly is not about reality or even possibility!
Tuesday, 12 March 2013
Tuesday, 26 February 2013
More ABS BS...
More BS from the ABS.
4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, Dec 2012
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features20Dec+2012
Read this and tell me how the international students, who were counted as permanent residents, get to return? They must leave and then apply for a skilled visa to return. The ABS is clearly wrong, like they were about being 300,000 people over our actual population...
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info/oad/perm-dep/permdep.htm
4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, Dec 2012
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features20Dec+2012
Read this and tell me how the international students, who were counted as permanent residents, get to return? They must leave and then apply for a skilled visa to return. The ABS is clearly wrong, like they were about being 300,000 people over our actual population...
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info/oad/perm-dep/permdep.htm
Monday, 21 January 2013
Time to stop residential speculation.
1. Land tax on all property.
2. Full CGT on all property sold under 10 years ( exemptions for health, work or babies – legitimate reasons to move). No CGT for anyone if sold after 10 years.
3. Abolish stamps.
4. Rental pricing regulations so mining and natural disasters does not send rents to the moon.
5. Reverse mortgages supplied by Centrelink, for those who elect to accrue the land tax.
Rising house prices, well above the cpi or wage growth, is not desirable to an advanced society.
2. Full CGT on all property sold under 10 years ( exemptions for health, work or babies – legitimate reasons to move). No CGT for anyone if sold after 10 years.
3. Abolish stamps.
4. Rental pricing regulations so mining and natural disasters does not send rents to the moon.
5. Reverse mortgages supplied by Centrelink, for those who elect to accrue the land tax.
Rising house prices, well above the cpi or wage growth, is not desirable to an advanced society.
Saturday, 19 January 2013
Australian Suburbs Population Decline 2006 to 2011
I am still in awe of the amount of suburbs like Rochedale, Springwood, Jindalee, Albany Creek and Capalaba that had population declines from 2006 to 2011.
A very nice new tool from Fairfax to play in.
Fairfax Population Growth Tool
So population decrease or increasse has very little to do with house prices, but population growth does?
I will need to ponder hard on the spruikers who talk about population growth driving prices higher, for surely the reverse must be true and yet It is not.
The amount of people at any certain age does.
Why did the new families not move into these burbs? Too unaffordable? Ganny or Grandpa holding onto their home? I suspect it is sociology and a dramatic rise in lone occupants that have caused the decline. Question is, what will happen to prices in these burbs when the lone occupants start to die on mass as our death rates double over the next 25 years.
Baby boom to death bust.
A very nice new tool from Fairfax to play in.
Fairfax Population Growth Tool
So population decrease or increasse has very little to do with house prices, but population growth does?
I will need to ponder hard on the spruikers who talk about population growth driving prices higher, for surely the reverse must be true and yet It is not.
The amount of people at any certain age does.
Why did the new families not move into these burbs? Too unaffordable? Ganny or Grandpa holding onto their home? I suspect it is sociology and a dramatic rise in lone occupants that have caused the decline. Question is, what will happen to prices in these burbs when the lone occupants start to die on mass as our death rates double over the next 25 years.
Baby boom to death bust.
Thursday, 29 November 2012
People Traffickers - Terroists and Their Treatment
Firstly let us establish some points.
1. When people die on unsafe boats making an unsafe paid journey for asylum, they are terrorized, to death!
2. The traffickers who profit and organise such perilous journeys are terrorists and must be treated as such.
3. No push factor will stop the actual asylum seekers getting on a death journey, only stopping the boats will stop the deaths at sea.
I suggest that our ASIS team, or some other similar organization in association with the Indonesian Security Services, have assets as potential asylum seekers and an aggressive intel operation be launched with the sole objective of capturing and sentencing as many 'trafficker terrorists' as possible. I would support the death penalty for those that could be identified as causing multiple innocent deaths and a minimum 25 year sentence for others. Heck, the Australian gov't could meet some of the overall costs of the sentence with approx a $250k contribution per 'terrorist' who is locked up for the full term. Certainly cheaper than our current policy settings I would think.
This will stop the boats and our humanitarian intake can be increased as it rightly should.
1. When people die on unsafe boats making an unsafe paid journey for asylum, they are terrorized, to death!
2. The traffickers who profit and organise such perilous journeys are terrorists and must be treated as such.
3. No push factor will stop the actual asylum seekers getting on a death journey, only stopping the boats will stop the deaths at sea.
I suggest that our ASIS team, or some other similar organization in association with the Indonesian Security Services, have assets as potential asylum seekers and an aggressive intel operation be launched with the sole objective of capturing and sentencing as many 'trafficker terrorists' as possible. I would support the death penalty for those that could be identified as causing multiple innocent deaths and a minimum 25 year sentence for others. Heck, the Australian gov't could meet some of the overall costs of the sentence with approx a $250k contribution per 'terrorist' who is locked up for the full term. Certainly cheaper than our current policy settings I would think.
This will stop the boats and our humanitarian intake can be increased as it rightly should.
Monday, 22 October 2012
Ok, on my first day...
Ok, so I am elected Prime Minister, want would I do first...
1) I would make voluntary youth voting for every 16 year old up. If they pay tax, then they should have the right to vote. Quite simply, kids today are more informed and more politically aware. They should have the right to vote.
2) I also think that the top 2.5% of high school graduates, should get a HECS free education. To pay for this get rid of the Baby Bonus totally as it only ever made a 1.2% gain in our fertility rates.
3) Abolish stamps and make the PPOR eligible for the full CGT if sold under 10 years. No CGT on any property after being held for 10 years. (Exemption for health, babies or work relocation)(pensioners can pay the Land tax as a 'deferred reverse mortgage' to the govt)
4) Centrelink to be the only provided of 'Reverse Morgtages' and all other commercial offerings banned. Centrelink can provide a no negative equity guarantee.
5) The PPOR over the value of $750k to be counted in the asset test for pension eligibility. Once again, reverse mortgages available to those you have ample equity and require the cash.
6) Work with Indonesia to put in a special military team/intel to 'take out' the people smugglers. We should be going after the 'drug dealers' not the 'drug users'. The people on Nauru have confirmed to me that the Indo police know who the smugglers are now. Fly all unauthorised asylum seekers who arrive, back to their country of origin. (Sorry Carmel, had to edit out 'illegal' as you pointed out :-)
7) Increase the GST to 20% to help pay for the ageing nation. Welfare /pensions to rise accordingly to compensate. With the increase in the GST the tax free wage threshold raises to $50k. Phased in over 4 years.
8) Family Assist Part S - Family Assist Part S
9) To encourage permanent placements into regional Australia, doctors who immigrate and bring their family (wife and at least 2 children) and reside in a regional area, are given a free house for rental accommodation. After 5 continual years in that community, the house ownership is transferred to them at no cost.
10) Death Tax on estates over $2 million (25% on the amount over $2 million)
12) Close the rort of SMSF's using NG/losses within the fund to increase their cap contributions levels and saving on tax on the way in. This rort is distorting the property market now and making entry homes even more unaffordable to our youth.
1) I would make voluntary youth voting for every 16 year old up. If they pay tax, then they should have the right to vote. Quite simply, kids today are more informed and more politically aware. They should have the right to vote.
2) I also think that the top 2.5% of high school graduates, should get a HECS free education. To pay for this get rid of the Baby Bonus totally as it only ever made a 1.2% gain in our fertility rates.
3) Abolish stamps and make the PPOR eligible for the full CGT if sold under 10 years. No CGT on any property after being held for 10 years. (Exemption for health, babies or work relocation)(pensioners can pay the Land tax as a 'deferred reverse mortgage' to the govt)
4) Centrelink to be the only provided of 'Reverse Morgtages' and all other commercial offerings banned. Centrelink can provide a no negative equity guarantee.
5) The PPOR over the value of $750k to be counted in the asset test for pension eligibility. Once again, reverse mortgages available to those you have ample equity and require the cash.
6) Work with Indonesia to put in a special military team/intel to 'take out' the people smugglers. We should be going after the 'drug dealers' not the 'drug users'. The people on Nauru have confirmed to me that the Indo police know who the smugglers are now. Fly all unauthorised asylum seekers who arrive, back to their country of origin. (Sorry Carmel, had to edit out 'illegal' as you pointed out :-)
7) Increase the GST to 20% to help pay for the ageing nation. Welfare /pensions to rise accordingly to compensate. With the increase in the GST the tax free wage threshold raises to $50k. Phased in over 4 years.
8) Family Assist Part S - Family Assist Part S
9) To encourage permanent placements into regional Australia, doctors who immigrate and bring their family (wife and at least 2 children) and reside in a regional area, are given a free house for rental accommodation. After 5 continual years in that community, the house ownership is transferred to them at no cost.
10) Death Tax on estates over $2 million (25% on the amount over $2 million)
12) Close the rort of SMSF's using NG/losses within the fund to increase their cap contributions levels and saving on tax on the way in. This rort is distorting the property market now and making entry homes even more unaffordable to our youth.
Saturday, 20 October 2012
Melt or bust?
It is clear that if you are in some parts of Oz now, a bust has already happened, however for the vast majority, they felt a slow melt.
IMO a slow melt till 2018 is on the cards and most likely to be engineered by the RBA and political will.
IMO a slow melt till 2018 is on the cards and most likely to be engineered by the RBA and political will.
Friday, 28 September 2012
Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Pondering...
Mmm.... just had a thought.
If retired people want reverse mortgages (11% and compounding interest) then why not just sell 25% of their home to an investor and agree to pay some rent. If someone can not sell their home, why not sell 50% of it.
It would suit society if the govt were to buy this equity, so when the pensioner couple die, the house could be converted to public housing as an option.
Flexible financial housing solutions will assist in the deflation.
Later edit: domacom.com.au provides Fractional Property Investing.
What are the exit plans like for the majority holder? Who decides the sell price? Lots of question, however a novel approach
If retired people want reverse mortgages (11% and compounding interest) then why not just sell 25% of their home to an investor and agree to pay some rent. If someone can not sell their home, why not sell 50% of it.
It would suit society if the govt were to buy this equity, so when the pensioner couple die, the house could be converted to public housing as an option.
Flexible financial housing solutions will assist in the deflation.
Later edit: domacom.com.au provides Fractional Property Investing.
What are the exit plans like for the majority holder? Who decides the sell price? Lots of question, however a novel approach
Sunday, 26 August 2012
Unwinding of our Terms of Trade and GDP Growth
Treasury data released in July shows that roughly half of the growth in average income experienced in the 2000s was due to the rise in out terms of trade, and the economy and income growth would therefore experience severe challenges in future when the terms of trade unwind.http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Speeches/2012/Productivity-and-Structural-Change
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/asia/australia_productivity_imperative
Not sure what planet Dick Smith and Ian Lowe are on?
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/australia27s-population-debate/4197352
Perhaps if we were actually dealing with the real data and Professor Lowe actually could quote the correct numbers?
He states...
"Adding together the birth rate and migration, the Australian population is now growing by about 400,000 a year or another million every two and a half years...
Each year about 100,000 Australians die and about 250,000 babies are born, so the population would grow by about 150,000 a year or about 400 a day if there were no migration."
We grew by 302,000 actually and 60% on a temporary Visa.
149,700 net natural growth or 296,700 births minus 147,000 deaths. So he is out only by approx 50% in his numbers. Note the deaths were 2.5% higher than the previous year as were births.
Our NOM was 184,000.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3101.0Dec%202011?OpenDocument
What it leads to his the same sort of misguided emotion that surrounds climate change. The difference, demography is quite exact. Look at this bs, Brisbane to grow to 4.4 million from the 2.15 million now by 2031, when it is actually grew by 34,800 last year. Far short of the 118,1421 required yearly to add the 2.25 million over the 19 years.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/population-sweet-spot-how-big-should-brisbane-grow-20120822-24mgm.html
Facts...
1. Some city areas in Brisbane are in population decline, as are the other capitals.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features62010-11?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2010-11&num=&view=
2. "The SD of Brisbane experienced the largest growth of all SDs in Queensland, with an increase of 34,800 people (1.7%) in the year to June 2011. Brisbane SD accounted for 45% of Queensland's population at June 2011." Mmmm... 20 years by 34,800 is only 696,000 extra people and in that time frames Qld death rates double.
3. I suppose these suburbs in Brisbane are bucking the Dick Smith Trend. "DECLINING POPULATIONS- In the 12 months to June 2011, just over 10% of the 74 LGAs in Queensland had a small decline in population or remained stable. The two SLAs with the largest declines were Keperra (down 40 people) and Bald Hills (down 30), both located in the Brisbane (C) LGA."
Really as far as the growth in the population in Qld, both natural growth and the NOM could fall and we would still be growing due to the 1/3 demographic momentum, more people living longer.
Perhaps if we were actually dealing with the real data and Professor Lowe actually could quote the correct numbers?
He states...
"Adding together the birth rate and migration, the Australian population is now growing by about 400,000 a year or another million every two and a half years...
Each year about 100,000 Australians die and about 250,000 babies are born, so the population would grow by about 150,000 a year or about 400 a day if there were no migration."
We grew by 302,000 actually and 60% on a temporary Visa.
149,700 net natural growth or 296,700 births minus 147,000 deaths. So he is out only by approx 50% in his numbers. Note the deaths were 2.5% higher than the previous year as were births.
Our NOM was 184,000.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3101.0Dec%202011?OpenDocument
What it leads to his the same sort of misguided emotion that surrounds climate change. The difference, demography is quite exact. Look at this bs, Brisbane to grow to 4.4 million from the 2.15 million now by 2031, when it is actually grew by 34,800 last year. Far short of the 118,1421 required yearly to add the 2.25 million over the 19 years.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/population-sweet-spot-how-big-should-brisbane-grow-20120822-24mgm.html
Facts...
1. Some city areas in Brisbane are in population decline, as are the other capitals.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features62010-11?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2010-11&num=&view=
2. "The SD of Brisbane experienced the largest growth of all SDs in Queensland, with an increase of 34,800 people (1.7%) in the year to June 2011. Brisbane SD accounted for 45% of Queensland's population at June 2011." Mmmm... 20 years by 34,800 is only 696,000 extra people and in that time frames Qld death rates double.
3. I suppose these suburbs in Brisbane are bucking the Dick Smith Trend. "DECLINING POPULATIONS- In the 12 months to June 2011, just over 10% of the 74 LGAs in Queensland had a small decline in population or remained stable. The two SLAs with the largest declines were Keperra (down 40 people) and Bald Hills (down 30), both located in the Brisbane (C) LGA."
Really as far as the growth in the population in Qld, both natural growth and the NOM could fall and we would still be growing due to the 1/3 demographic momentum, more people living longer.
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